Beyond Technologies of Observation. Accepting Uncertainty in Disaster Risk Management

Authors

  • Magdalena Gil Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5166-4793

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.1971-8853/21077

Keywords:

Disasters, observation, uncertainty, risks

Abstract

This short essay examines the current role of technologies of observation in disaster risk management, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on these systems to address extreme natural hazards. While advances in observation and prediction tools, such as seismographs, weather satellites, and early warning systems, have improved societies’ capacity to anticipate and mitigate disasters, these technologies are not without challenges. Complex socio-technical systems remain prone to failures, and are difficult to interpret. Overall, uncertainty often prevails during emergencies. Using examples from Chile and Spain, this paper argues that the focus of disaster management should shift from the enhancement of technological precision to empowering decision-makers and communities to act effectively under conditions of uncertainty. I propose focusing on improving situational assessments, by emphasizing the importance of interpretation, translation, and even improvisation.

References

BBC News. (2015). Obama: Hurricane Katrina “Became a Man-Made Disaster”. BBC News, 27 August. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-34082404

Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage.

Bonnefoy, P. (2013). Chilean Judge Upholds Manslaughter Charges Linked to 2010 Tsunami. The New York Times, 16 May. https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/17/world/americas/chilean-judge-upholds-manslaughter-charges-against-officials-over-tsunami-alert.html

Bordera, J. (2024). I Tried to Warn Valencia’s Government about Flooding, but It Didn’t Listen. The Guardian, 6 November. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/warn-valencia-government-flooding

Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices Without Trade-Offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409–432. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.113.2.409

Chutel, L., Bautista, J., Nierenberg, A., & Bautista, J. (2024). After Spain’s Floods, a Surge of Volunteers, and of Rage. The New York Times, 3 November. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/world/europe/spain-floods-valencia-volunteers.html

Clennon, M. [@thisismarkc]. (2021). You will experience climate change as an escalating series of videos until you are the one recording. [Tweet]. X, September 2. https://x.com/thisismarkc/status/1433265375085535237

Elkady, S., Hernantes, J., Gómez, E., & Labaka, L. (2024). Revealing Resilience Features: Analyzing Informal Solutions Adopted in Emergency Situations. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 101, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104267

EM-DAT. (2024). The International Disaster Database. Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. http://www.emdat.be

Eyal, G. (2019). The Crisis of Expertise. Cambridge: Polity.

Faulkner, R.R., & Becker, H.S. (2009). “Do You Know..?” The Jazz Repertoire in Action. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.

Giddens, A. (1999). Risk and Responsibility. The Modern Law Review, 62(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2230.00188

Gil, M. (2024). Forjadores de la Nación: Rethinking the Role of Earthquakes in Chilean History. In D. de Carvalho Cabral, A. Vital, & M. Gascón (Eds.), More-than-Human Histories of Latin America and the Caribbean: Decentring the Human in Environmental History (pp. 119–138). London, U.K: University of London Press. https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/more-than-human-histories-of-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/section/3cf48910-e460-457a-a87f-f58ee1a1f866

Gil, M., & Undurraga, E.A. (2022). Living the Modern Dream: Risk Quantification and Modeling during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chile. In P.R. Brown & J.O. Zinn (Eds.), COVID-19 and the Sociology of Risk and Uncertainty (pp. 217–244). New York, NY: Springer.

Harremoës, P. (2002). The Precautionary Principle in the 20th Century: Late Lessons from Early Warnings. London: Earthscan.

Hewitt, K. (1983). Interpretations of Calamity: From the Viewpoint of Human Ecology. Boston, MA: Allen & Unwin.

Horowitz, A. (2020). Katrina: A History, 1915–2015. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Hossain, S., Spurway, K., Zwi, A.B., Huq, N.L., Mamun, R., Islam, R., Nowrin, I., Ether, S., Bonnitcha, J., Dahal, N., & Adams, A.M. (2017). What Is the Impact of Urbanisation on Risk of and Vulnerability to Natural Disasters? What Are the Effective Approaches for Reducing Exposure of Urban Populations to Disaster Risks? EPPI-Centre, Social Science Research Unit, UCL Institute of Education, University College London. https://eppi.ioe.ac.uk/cms/Portals/0/PDF%20reviews%20and%20summaries/Urbanisation%20and%20natural%20disaster%202017%20report%20final.pdf?ver=2018-04-30-161140-207

Howitt, A.M., & Leonard, H.B. (2006). Katrina and the Core Challenges of Disaster Response. The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 30(1), 215–221. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/katrina-and-core-challenges-disaster-response

IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (H. Lee & J. Romero, Eds.). IPCC. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647

Kane, S.C., Medina, E., & Michler, D.M. (2015). Infrastructural Drift in Seismic Cities: Chile, Pacific Rim, 27 February, 2010. Social Text, 33(1), 71–92. https://doi.org/10.1215/01642472-2831880

Kelman, I. (2020). Disaster by Choice: How Our Actions Turn Natural Hazards into Catastrophes. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Kendra, J., & Wachtendorf, T. (2007). Improvisation, Creativity, and the Art of Emergency Management. In H. Durmaz, B. Sevinc, A.S. Yayla, & S. Ekici (Eds.), Understanding and Responding to Terrorism (pp. 324–335). Amsterdam: IOS Press.

Kreps, G. (1991). Organizing for Emergency Management. In T.E. Drabek, & G.J. Hoetmer (Eds.), Emergency Management: Principles and Practice for Local Government (pp. 30–54). Washington, DC: ICMA Press.

Lemann, N. (2020). Why Hurricane Katrina Was Not a Natural Disaster. The New Yorker, 26 August. https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/why-hurricane-katrina-was-not-a-natural-disaster

Mamédio, D.F., Pascuci, L., & Meyer, V. (2024). Firefighters in Action: How Strategic Improvisation Enables Agile and Creative Responsiveness in Complex Adaptive Systems. Journal of Management Inquiry, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/10564926241253512

Mileti, D.S. (1999). Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press.

Munárriz, Á. (2025). A Far-Right Feeding Frenzy in the Swamp Left Behind by Spain’s Flash Floods. El País, 5 November. https://english.elpais.com/climate/2024-11-05/a-far-right-feeding-frenzy-in-the-swamp-left-behind-by-spains-flash-floods.html

NBC News Associated Press. (2006). Chertoff: Katrina “Overwhelmed” Us. NBC News, 15 February. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/11326958/ns/us_news-katrina_the_long_road_back/t/chertoff-katrina-overwhelmed-us/

Peñas, A. (2025). “The Young People in Valencia Have Shown That the Glass Generation Can Turn to Steel”: An Interview with Pablo González Gasca. The European Conservative, 3 January. https://europeanconservative.com/articles/interviews/the-young-people-in-valencia-have-shown-that-the-glass-generation-can-turn-to-steel-an-interview-with-pablo-gonzalez-gasca/

Perrow, C. (1984). Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies. New York, NY: Basic Books.

Roud, E. (2021). Collective Improvisation in Emergency Response. Safety Science, 135, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2020.10510

Samaniego, J.F. (2024). Cronología de un Desastre: ¿Qué Falló en la Respuesta a la Emergencia por la DANA en Valencia? Climática, 31 October. https://climatica.coop/cronologia-desastre-respuesta-dana/

Schneider, S.K. (2008). Who’s to Blame? (Mis)perceptions of the Intergovernmental Response to Disasters. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 38(4), 715–738. http://dx.doi.org/pjn019

Spivey, M. (2024). Angry Crowds Throw Mud at Spain’s King in Valencia as Fresh Weather Warnings Issued. BBC News, 3 November. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg4p0y3xlpt

Stark, D. (2014). On Resilience. Societies, 3(1), 60–70. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci3010060

Tierney, K.J. (2014). The Social Roots of Risk: Producing Disasters, Promoting Resilience. Redwood City, CA: Stanford University Press.

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). (2005). Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. United Nations. https://www.unisdr.org/files/1037_hyogoframeworkforactionenglish.pdf

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). (2015). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030). United Nations. https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030

Waugh, W.L. (2006). The Political Costs of Failure in the Katrina and Rita Disasters. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604(1), 10–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716205284916

Weber, M. (1919). Politik als Beruf. Munich: Duncker & Humblot.

Weick, K.E. (1998). Improvisation as a Mindset for Organizational Analysis. Organization Science, 9(5), 543–555. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.9.5.543

Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., & Davis, I. (2003). At Risk Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge.

Zinn, J. (2020). Understanding Risk-taking. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.

Downloads

Published

2025-05-05

How to Cite

Gil , M. (2025). Beyond Technologies of Observation. Accepting Uncertainty in Disaster Risk Management. Sociologica, 19(1), 155–164. https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.1971-8853/21077

Issue

Section

Focus